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[UPDATED] Announcing the winner of the 2nd annual Roster Prediction

in Alte Heimat 11.03.2019 07:20
von liny195 • 73 Beiträge

Contest! We began a long journey together back on the 30th of April http://www.redskinsfootballauthentics.com/alex-smith-jersey-authentic , when the first UDFA profile of 2018 was published, featuring Simmie Cobbs Jr., who is now one of 10 players on the Redskins Practice Squad.Over the course of the next 4 weeks, 16 more UDFA profiles were done, for a total of 17, with the final one in the series being Darvin Kidsy.But this is not the kind of site where we just toss out some profiles and walk away.I see my mission at Hogs Haven to be sure that this motley crew of likely future warehousemen and used car salesmen get more than just their 15 minutes in the sun.On the 1st of June, we posted an article looking at which of these guys had experience as kick and punt returners.Fearing that the awareness of the UDFA players might be fading, and wanting to get as much milage as possible out of the profiles posted in May, I put up three summary articles ahead of training camp:A review of UDFA wide receivers at training campAnother look at non-WR UDFA offensive players at training campA review of UDFA defensive players at training campBut we didn’t stop there.Following the second preseason game, we published an article re-visiting the punt & kick returner competition in an effort to see if it would give any insight to training camp battles (personally, I think it did exactly that).A lot of these players got another look in the review of the WR training camp battle that we published on the 21st of August.Eventually, of course, the preseaon had to end, and I knew I couldn’t lap at the teat of the UDFA milk supply forever.To put a bow on it all, we published the 2nd annual roster prediction contest aimed at successfully predicting the fates of late round draft picks and UDFAs prior to the final cut to 53 players.Incredibly, 35 readers decided to take a shot at the contest, which involved predicting the fates of 20 players — 6 late round draft picks and 14 UDFAs.Among the entrants were Gibbs4potus, who did the film breakdowns for the UDFA profiles this year, and Redspin, the winner of the inaugural 2017 Roster Prediction Contest, who has the honor, in perpetuity, of listing his victory in his sig line:Entrants had to predict one of three outcomes for each player: He made the team (the final 53-man roster)He was put onto the Redskins practice squad; orHe was cutEntrants earned points for correct predictions, but were penalized for incorrect predictions by losing points.The winning entry was to be determined by looking at the status of the 20 players at 5pm EDT on Thursday, 6 September 2018.Here’s what actually happened to the 20 players in question:Click here to see the entire Redskins roster http://www.redskinsfootballauthentics.com/jonathan-allen-jersey-authentic , practice squad and reserve lists.Our crack team of analysts has now completed the process of tabulating the results, and we are ready to share them with the world.and the winner is...Juve Duran!Juve topped the table by scoring 89 points.Interestingly, the contest was initially a tie between two entrants, Juve Duran and HTTR86, who were tied at the time of initial cutdowns, with 81 points each.But when J.P. Holtz was brought back to the Redskins Practice Squad a fewdays after the roster was initially set on Saturday, but well ahead of the Thursday deadline, that pushed Juve Duran, who had predicted Holtz on the practice squad, into sole possession of 1st place!Congratulations to Juve Duran on his win, and to the rest of the entrants on well-thought out and high-scoring entries.The average score earned by our 35 entrants was 63.7 points, which is a testament to a fan base who is extremely knowledgeable about the relative unknowns at the bottom of the Redskins roster in 2018.Truly arcane knowledge!Juve, in fact, missed on only 4 of his 20 predictions, meaning that he hit on 16 correctly — an 80% hit rate!In fact, he correctly predicted every player who made the team, except for Casey Dunn, and correctly predicted the fate of every player who eventually made the Practice Squad.It was a truly impressive feat of prediction that indicates that psychic traits likely run in Juve’s family.As a reward for this impressive feat of prognostication, Juve Duran will, in perpetuity, be entitled to add the following claim to his signature line:“Roster Contest Champion, 2018”Let it be known in every corner of the land, from this day forth, that Juve Duran is the Seer of Seers, Sage of Sages http://www.redskinsfootballauthentics.com/jordan-reed-jersey-authentic , Prognosticator of Prognosticators, and Roster Prophet Extraordinaire!Here is the full list of entrants with their final scores*** Please note that this list was updated about 6 hours after the post was initially published when KyleSmithforGM pointed out a flaw in my score calculation.There is always a balance in large, single-use spreadsheets unlikely to have a lot of changes that needs to be considered. Should it be filled with complex formulas that calculate scores automatically, or should it simply be a ‘dumb’ table, where scores are manually calculated and entered?The first takes a lot of time to design complex formulas that will probably never be needed.The latter saves time in constructing the sheet, but opens the door wider to the possibility of human error at the time of input.In the end, I opted for a compromise.Since almost everyone had put all the draft picks on the team, I decided to enter those scores manually, since it was mostly a copy & paste job, and was unlikely to see much change.I put limited formulas into the UDFA slots, where the score was calculated simply on whether the prediction matched the player’s status.When Hotz’s status changed, I updated him from Cut to PS, and all the scores changed as expected.What I forgot about was that I had written limited formulas that made only one test in an either/or possibility, which took only a moment to write; I hadn’t written ‘nested’ if/then condition tests, which seemed needlessly complex for this spreadsheet. When I changed Holtz’s status from Cut to PS, I had to go to the formula and change the condition being tested from Cut to PS, which I forgot to do.The result was that I got the right winner, but I underestimated his score, and I underestimated the score of everyone who didn’t choose “team” for Holtz.The revised list of scores below reflects the correction to that formula, and the resulting increase in most entrants’ final scores.Thanks to KyleSmithforGM for pointing out the mistake quickly so I was able to correct it and show the increased level of the collective wisdom of the Hogs Haven fan base.Although I feel quite confident that the scores should now accurately reflect everyone’s entry results accurately, if anyone spots another error, please let me know and I will endeavor to correct it immediately or sooner.Apologies for the spreadsheet scoring mistake, and — perhaps more importantly — for spelling GAL Gadot’s name wrong in the poll question.I want to thank everyone who participated.I hope everyone enjoyed the contest and will return next year when we will update the prize to be even bigger and better by changing the year to 2019!Enjoy the Cardinals game, and HTTR!!! OffenseNate Stanley, QBSchool: Iowa | Conference: BIG 10College Experience: Junior | Age: 21?Height / Weight: 6-4 / 242 lbsNate Stanley is a QB that doesn’t get the recognition he should. If I had to make a “bold” prediction I think Stanley will be the Cody Kessler of this draft if he decides to come out. This is no comparison of the two players skill but I think Stanley would get selected much higher than people expect. He somewhat quietly has put up good numbers so far in the BIG 10. Stanley will definitely tick the measurables box but if he doesn’t improve greatly from now till when he entires the draft questions about his accuracy will come up. Stanley had a monster game against Indiana this past weekend. He went 21/33for 320 yards 6 TDs and 1 INT. He is definitely an QB to keep an eye on going forward considering that kind of production (even if against Indiana). He’s a bigger QB and is strong stout and quite mobile. Bring on the Big Ben comparisons!Miles Sanders http://www.redskinsfootballauthentics.com/josh-norman-jersey-authentic , RBSchool: Penn State | Conference: BIG 10College Experience: Junior | Age: 21?Height / Weight: 5-11 / 207 lbsThough the Nittany Lions were upset Miles Sanders had a great game against Michigan State. If Sanders can keep up the production he’s had thus far there is no question that Penn State is developing an impressive pipeline at the running back position and that he could be in the mix of some of the early selections at the position. Sanders is not his predecessor Saquon Barkley but he emulated a few of his signature moves this game. Sanders simply made Michigan State defenders look silly. He has been the work horse for this Penn State team and he is an exciting player to watch. As you can see he has an impressive blend of speed elusiveness and balance. He finished this game with 17 carries for 162 yards and a TD.Jace Sternberger, TESchool: Texas A&M | Conference: SECCollege Experience: Junior | Age: 21?Height / Weight: 6-4 / 250 lbsSternberger is probably the best pass catching tight end in college football. He has been such a weapon for the Aggies this year and he has reinvigorated his career after transferring from Kansas. He’s is Texas A&M’s leading receiver in yards, catches, and touchdowns he also leads the NCAA in receiving yards by a TE at this point. He moves like a big wide receiver and causes so much damage over the middle. He plays with an impressive amount of effort and is obviously a much depended on target for his QB. You know just a few months ago there were questions about Jordan Reed’s health and Vernon Davis’ age. If the Redskins move on from either after this year should they take a look at Sternberger? He finished this game against South Carolina with 7 catches for 145 yards and a TD. Xavier Ubosi, WRSchool: UAB | Conference: CUSACollege Experience: Senior | Age: 22?Height / Weight: 6-3 / 215 lbsUbosi is a big bodied deep threat for UAB. It doesn’t look like he does much other than run go routes and deep posts but he does it quite well. If UAB had better QB play he would likely be producing even more. Regardless is averaging an impressive 33 yards per catch average and he has the ability not only to stretch the field but he has the physicality to out muscle DBs in his way. He reminds me a bit of a poor mans Cameron Sutton. Many Redskins fans are upset with Josh Doctson and the team very well may move on from him after next season. The Redskins have a few options on the roster than have size but none (outside of Robert Davis) that I would consider a true deep/redzone threat. Ubosi has that skill set and likely will be available on day 3 of the draft. He dominated Rice this past weekend and finished the game with 4 catches for 196 yards and 2 TDs. DefenseChristian Miller, LBSchool: Alabama | Conference: SECCollege Experience: RS Senior | Age: 22?Height / Weight: 6-4 / 244 lbsThe Redskins have spent a good amount of resources these past couple years on defensive linemen and linebackers from Alabama. Let’s have another and consider drafting Christian Miller. Miller stepped into the starting role in the middle of the Alabama defense after Rashaan Evans and our own Shaun Dion Hamilton were drafted. Miller is having a good season so far and he is a particularly dangerous pass rusher. He is consistently putting the QB in tough positions and is among the top pass rushing inside linebackers in the country in production as he’s registered 7 TFLs and 4.5 sacks already on the year. He’s an exciting player to watch and he clearly has good athleticism. I’ll watch him some more to gauge his coverage abilities but I like what I see thus far. Miller was a nightmare for LSU’s QB this past game as he racked up hurry after hurry. Those wont appear on the stat sheet but he had 3 tackles, 1.5 for loss, and a pass defended this game.Sutton Smith, EDGE/LBSchool: Northern Illinois | Conference: Mid American College Experience: RS Junior | Age: 22?Height / Weight: 6-1 / 237 lbsThere are players you notice while watching college football who you just know are going to be good. Sometimes you want to write about them but their isn’t enough supporting material to reference and back up your opinion with. Sometimes in their RS Junior year they start to blow up and you wish they would remain a secret. I just described Sutton Smith. Smith logged 30 TFLs and 14 sacks last season. He is on pace to match those numbers again this year. Smith causes havoc in the Mid American conference rushing off the edge. He certainly plays with good speed in fluidity but he almost certain will be moved to OLB in the NFL due to his size. That should be no problem for him in my opinion. He probably is much better suited to play in a 4-3 defense but I still enjoy watching him and would not mind him in the B&G. Smith wrecked Ohio and put up 5 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 2 sacks, a FF, and recovered 2 fumbles in this game. Duke Shelley, CBSchool: Kansas State | Conference: BIG 12College Experience: Senior | Age: 22Height / Weight: 5-9 / 180 lbsShelley is small, he will have to exclusively be a slot corner if he makes it to the NFL but boy does he have Oklahoma State’s number. Shelley has played OKST two other times in his career and in each contest he picked off a pass. In this contest he picked two passes. Shelley needs work technically but he is tough and annoying and will not give up on a pass. I love those types of corners. He is one of those young corners that you take a shot on during the last day of the draft to see if they stick and if they can grow further in the league. Shelley has half a season to build resume. He’s in good shape. Keep an eye out on him in BIG 12 play he is one of K-State’s best defenders. He officially finished this game with 6 tackles, 2 INTs, and a pass defended. Quinnen Williams, DLSchool: Alabama | Conference: SECCollege Experience: RS Sophomore | Age: 21?Height / Weight: 6-4 / 289 lbsI almost didn’t include Williams purely because I didn’t realize he was a RS Sophomore and this draft eligible. I wrote about his teammate Isaiah Buggs a few weeks back. Buggs may show up more on the stat sheet but Williams shows up more on any given play. He is another Bama boy and he is as strong as an ox, has no problem collapsing the pocket and creating pressure. How does Saban keep finding these guys? He can also play the run. I’m up for adding another one of these guys to the team. If Williams decides to declare he should be among the first 10 DL taken this year if he keeps up his level of play. He pressured Drew Lock all afternoon and finished the contest with 7 tackles, 2 TFLs, and a sack. 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